{"id":138158,"date":"2016-03-23T11:25:56","date_gmt":"2016-03-23T10:25:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.recom.link\/138142-2-2\/"},"modified":"2020-04-18T03:11:47","modified_gmt":"2020-04-18T02:11:47","slug":"138142-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.recom.link\/bhsc\/138142-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Eric Gordy on forthcoming verdict in Radovan Karad\u017ei\u0107 case"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"entry-header\">\n<h1 class=\"entry-title\">This week\u2019s predictions: Ko te Karad\u017ei\u0107 nek ti pi\u0161e\u00a0pjesme<\/h1>\n<div class=\"entry-meta\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-meta\"><\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-697\" src=\"https:\/\/eastethnia.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/03\/dabar.jpg?w=610\" alt=\"dabar\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"byline\">by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" title=\"View all posts by Eric Gordy\" href=\"https:\/\/eastethnia.wordpress.com\/author\/eastethnia\/\" rel=\"author\">Eric Gordy<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>On Thursday the verdict will be delivered in one of ICTY\u2019s last major cases, the one against Radovan Karad\u017ei\u0107. You all know who he is and what he did, so no need to go into the details here: if you want to refresh your memory, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.icty.org\/x\/cases\/karadzic\/ind\/en\/markedup_indictment_091019.pdf\">here<\/a> is the final amended version of the indictment. It is fairly easy to make a prediction that has been made by everybody else as well, and that is that Karad\u017ei\u0107 will be convicted. No surprise there \u2013 the evidence is overwhelming and his defence was weak (a fact that is not the fault of Karad\u017ei\u0107\u2019s legal counsellor Peter <a href=\"http:\/\/www.peterrobinson.com\/\">Robinson<\/a>, who has to be recognised for doing a monumental job in assuring a fair trial despite an unreliable indictee who insisted on representing himself and a series of witnesses who were largely unhelpful).<\/p>\n<p>But of course the question that remains open is what Karad\u017ei\u0107 will be convicted of. The most intense attention will be directed to the most serious charges, where Karad\u017ei\u0107 is accused of genocide. Count 2 of the indictment accuses him of responsibility for the genocide in Srebrenica, and here it is reasonable to expect a conviction, for three reasons:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>1) There already exists a judicial record establishing that genocide was committed by VRS in Srebrenica, so judges are not being asked to break new ground;<\/li>\n<li>2) Karad\u017ei\u0107 occupied as position of political authority that gave him ultimate responsibility for the conduct of armed forces under his command (in his defence Karad\u017ei\u0107 argued that he did not exercise effective control over the military, which was dominated by his political rival Mladi\u0107, but to my eye the evidence does not look strong enough to demonstrate, like it did in the acquittal of former Serbian president-manque Milan Milutinovi\u0107, that he did not in fact exercise political power);<\/li>\n<li>3) A wide variety of RS institutions, from the \u201cstate\u201d assembly to the interior ministry and local police forces, left a documentary record that viewed in its entirety probably provides sufficient evidence of genocidal intent at the political level. The fact that much of this evidence has become publicly available may end up being one of the greatest legacies of the prosecution researchers at ICTY (to the degree that transcripts of political debates indicate that genocidal intent was not universally shared by all \u201cstate\u201d officials, they clearly show Karad\u017ei\u0107 sharing the intent).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So on these grounds it looks probable that the Tribunal will find that Karad\u017ei\u0107\u2019s responsibility for the Srebrenica genocide has been demonstrated, and that he will be convicted on Count 2. But it is harder to make a confident prediction about Count 1, where Karad\u017ei\u0107 is accused of committing genocide between March and December 1992 in seven localities: Bratunac, Fo\u010da, Klju\u010d, Prijedor, Sanski Most, Vlasenica and Zvornik (in an earlier version of the indictment the charges also included genocide in Kotor Varo\u0161, Br\u010dko, and Vi\u0161egrad, but these were dropped in response to a trial chamber order to reduce the scope of the indictment). Whatever the trial chamber does find on Count 1, the decision will be read carefully because it both offers a guide to what will eventually be decided in the case of Ratko Mladi\u0107, and because either way, the judges\u2019 decision on Count 1 will be interpreted as going a long way to establishing the ICTY\u2019s stance on the character of the 1992-1995 Bosnian conflict. The eventual verdict will most likely also be interpreted not as a conclusion of what the evidence demonstrated, but as an indication of what the judges were willing to do politically at a given moment.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s make this a bit clearer: if the trial chamber finds Karad\u017ei\u0107 guilty on Count 1, this will be interpreted as indicating that the <em>aims and purposes themselves <\/em>of RS involved genocide. It will be understood as affirmation by people who have been arguing for years that the violence in Bosnia-Hercegovina was not a confrontation between a set of armed forces but a campaign deliberately designed to create nationally homogeneous territories by changing the structure of the population through violence. Many people in RS and Serbia will interpret a conviction on Count 1 as a condemnation of the war aims of Serbia and its clients in RS, and as a major challenge to the legitimacy of RS, where the current leadership lives in fear of being labelled an entity created through genocide. Either way, a guilty verdict on Count 1 will be taken as a major intervention by the judges into the historical understanding of the violence in Bosnia-Hercegovina.<\/p>\n<p>A not guilty verdict on Count 1 would also constitute a major intervention into history, but one more in line with the overall direction of the tribunal in its recent very controversial cases involving Bosnia-Hercegovina. In that version of events one incident of genocide occurred toward the end of a conflict that lasted for three and a half years. And for the rest, there was a confrontation between two legitimate armed forces with legitimate aims. Crimes were committed but were not the result of policy or command. This is the general narrative constructed by the appeals chamber in the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.icty.org\/x\/cases\/perisic\/acjug\/en\/130228_judgement.pdf\">Peri\u0161i\u0107<\/a> case, \u00a0which determined that <em>\u201cthe VRS was not an organisation whose actions were criminal per se; instead, it was an army fighting a war\u201d<\/em> (Peri\u0161i\u0107 appeal verdict, para 53), and that <em>\u201cVRS was participating in lawful combat activities and was not a purely criminal organisation\u201d<\/em> (Peri\u0161i\u0107 appeal verdict, para 57). The fact that crimes were committed along the way, in this telling of the story, involves freestanding individual facts rather than goals, policies or institutions. The narrative is further elaborated in the Stani\u0161i\u0107-Simatovi\u0107 trial chamber verdict (Part 1 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.icty.org\/x\/cases\/stanisic_simatovic\/tjug\/en\/130530_judgement_p1.pdf\">here<\/a>, Part 2 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.icty.org\/x\/cases\/stanisic_simatovic\/tjug\/en\/130530_judgement_p2.pdf\">here<\/a>), \u00a0where it is found that the role of outside actors who trained, financed and armed the forces that committed crimes merely provided <em>\u201cgeneral assistance which could be used for both lawful and unlawful activities\u201d<\/em> (Stani\u0161i\u0107-Simatovi\u0107 trial chamber verdict, para 1264, 2360), the purpose of which <em>\u201cwas limited to establishing and maintaining Serb control over large areas of Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina\u201d<\/em> (Stani\u0161i\u0107-Simatovi\u0107 verdict, para 2326; reformulated in various ways in paras 2330, 2332, 2333, 2334, 2345, 2360). In this context, if somebody says something like <em>\u201cwe\u2019ll exterminate them completely,\u201d<\/em> this is <em>\u201ctoo vague to be construed as support for the allegation that [the person] shared the intent to further the alleged common criminal purpose\u201d<\/em> (Stani\u0161i\u0107-Simatovi\u0107 trial chamber verdict, para 2309).<\/p>\n<p>It might seem more probable that ICTY would continue down the path it has taken and deliver a not guilty verdict on Count 1. But let me go out on a limb here and suggest why they might not: the <em>\u201elegitimate war with some nasty events along the way\u201c<\/em> narrative is reconstructed from the verdicts in\u00a0two 2013 cases that radically narrowed the standards for establishing criminal responsibility. These might be thought of as precedents, but a decision is only a precedent if another court uses it. This standard has been rejected by every court that has reviewed it, including three times by ICTY itself (in the \u0160ainovi\u0107 et al and Popovi\u0107 et al cases, and then again in December in the Stani\u0161i\u0107-Simatovi\u0107 appeal). If these rulings can be thought of as a judgment not just on the ill-conceived and short-lived \u201especific direction\u201c standard, but as a sign of a broader approach to crime (at least when the perpetrator is a domestic one whose activity does not cross borders), then it is not impossible that the Tribunal\u2019s standards could be returning to their pre-2013 levels. The limiting factor on this prediction is a big one, though: one thing we know is that in general, judges are pretty loath to label something as genocide if it has not already been labelled that way by another judge.<\/p>\n<p>Will any of this matter? In the short term, probably not much \u2013 people in different ethnopolitical camps will interpret any favourable verdict as a score for justice, and any unfavourable verdict as a sign that ICTY is biased. Down RS way, Milorad Dodik made the preemptive gesture of naming a new student <a href=\"http:\/\/www.6yka.com\/novost\/101666\/dragan-bursac-studentski-dom-radovanovih-zrtava\">dormitory<\/a> after Karad\u017ei\u0107 (what student would want to sleep in such a dormitory?). But in the long term \u2013 a finding that a court makes is bound to have more influence than a finding it does not make. Eventually both the supporters and critics are going to be compelled quit the roundabout strategy of talking about bias and engage with the content of the verdicts themsleves.<\/p>\n<p>Then next week there will be a verdict in another case, the one against state security agent, paramilitary mascot and TV performer Vojislav \u0160e\u0161elj. No major legal or empirical issues are at stake in this case, and it is principally notable for the grotesque theatrics that have accompanied it, in which an insane man plays a swearier and more bloated Jeanne D\u2019Arc and an incompetent man plays a judge. By deciding last week that the accused did not need to be required to show up to hear the verdict, the Tribunal fairly invited everyone to make a prediction that the verdict would not result in a prison sentence. Hold your breaths for the answer to the uninteresting question of whether this means an acquittal or sentencing to time served.<\/p>\n<p>So these are my predictions. Like any predictions, they will turn out to be either right or wrong, and we will all know by the end of next week. Then, of course, remember that these are cases in the trial phase, which means that whoever loses will have the opportunity to appeal, which they can be expected to use. So the story is going to go on.<\/p>\n<p><em>Note: Here\u2019s Marko Milanovi\u0107 making the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ejiltalk.org\/icty-karadzic-and-seselj-trial-judgments-due\/\">opposite<\/a> prediction. The reason we are making different predictions is that we are making different assumptions. He is assuming that judges will do what they have done before (usually a pretty safe assumption in any legal environment). I am assuming that the 2013 verdicts are reflective of a larger experiment in restricting legal oversight, which has since been rejected. I don\u2019t know which one of us is right.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>(Published <a href=\"https:\/\/eastethnia.wordpress.com\/2016\/03\/21\/this-weeks-predictions-ko-te-karadzic-nek-ti-pise-pjesme\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">on East Ethnia, 21.03.2016<\/a><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2016-03-21T14:54:48+00:00\"><\/time><a title=\"14:54\" href=\"https:\/\/eastethnia.wordpress.com\/2016\/03\/21\/this-weeks-predictions-ko-te-karadzic-nek-ti-pise-pjesme\/\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2016-03-21T14:54:48+00:00\">)<\/time><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This week\u2019s predictions: Ko te Karad\u017ei\u0107 nek ti pi\u0161e\u00a0pjesme &nbsp; by Eric Gordy &nbsp; On Thursday the verdict will be&#8230; ","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":179259,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[593],"tags":[2051,2052,2053],"class_list":["post-138158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tranziciona-pravda-bhsc","tag-convictions-bhsc","tag-eric-gordy-bhsc","tag-radovan-karadzic-2-bhsc"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Eric Gordy on forthcoming verdict in Radovan Karad\u017ei\u0107 case - REKOM ~ KOMRA ~ RECOM<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.recom.link\/bhsc\/138142-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Eric Gordy on forthcoming verdict in Radovan Karad\u017ei\u0107 case - REKOM ~ KOMRA ~ RECOM\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This week\u2019s predictions: Ko te Karad\u017ei\u0107 nek ti pi\u0161e\u00a0pjesme &nbsp; 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