{"id":137429,"date":"2016-02-04T11:46:44","date_gmt":"2016-02-04T10:46:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.recom.link\/20-years-after-dayton-heres-what-bosnians-think-about-being-divided-by-ethnicity-2\/"},"modified":"2016-02-04T11:50:23","modified_gmt":"2016-02-04T10:50:23","slug":"20-years-after-dayton-heres-what-bosnians-think-about-being-divided-by-ethnicity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.recom.link\/bhsc\/20-years-after-dayton-heres-what-bosnians-think-about-being-divided-by-ethnicity\/","title":{"rendered":"What Bosnians think about being divided by ethnicity?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"pb-sig-line hasnt-headshot has-0-headshots hasnt-bio is-not-column\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"pb-sig-line hasnt-headshot has-0-headshots hasnt-bio is-not-column\">\n<figure id=\"attachment_137421\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-137421\" style=\"width: 454px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.recom.link\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/dejton.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-137421\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-137421\" src=\"http:\/\/www.recom.link\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/dejton-300x205.jpg\" alt=\"dejton\" width=\"454\" height=\"310\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.recom.link\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/dejton-300x205.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.recom.link\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/dejton-768x526.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.recom.link\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/dejton-1024x701.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.recom.link\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/dejton-1200x822.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.recom.link\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/dejton.jpg 1484w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 454px) 100vw, 454px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-137421\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Alija Izetbegovi\u0107, center, president of Bosnia and Herzegovina, looks on as Franjo Tudjman, right, president of Croatia, and Slobodan Milo\u0161evi\u0107, president of Serbia, shake hands after initializing a peace accord between their countries during the Dayton Peace Accords of 1995. (John Ruthroff\/AFP\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pb-sig-line hasnt-headshot has-0-headshots hasnt-bio is-not-column\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"pb-sig-line hasnt-headshot has-0-headshots hasnt-bio is-not-column\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"pb-sig-line hasnt-headshot has-0-headshots hasnt-bio is-not-column\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"pb-sig-line hasnt-headshot has-0-headshots hasnt-bio is-not-column\"><strong><span class=\"pb-byline\">By Gerard Toal and John O&#8217;Loughlin, <em>Washington Post<\/em><br \/>\n<\/span><\/strong><\/div>\n<div class=\"pb-sig-line hasnt-headshot has-0-headshots hasnt-bio is-not-column\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"pb-sig-line hasnt-headshot has-0-headshots hasnt-bio is-not-column\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"pb-sig-line hasnt-headshot has-0-headshots hasnt-bio is-not-column\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Last November and December, a series of events and <a href=\"https:\/\/udayton.edu\/m\/daytonpeaceaccordsat20\/\">conferences<\/a> marked the 20th anniversary of the Dayton Peace Accords of 1995, the negotiated agreement that ended the Bosnian war and devised a complex governance structure for the country.<\/p>\n<p>The Dayton agreement was not a democratic agreement. It was not even an agreement negotiated by Bosnians or written in Bosnian. Pushed by the U.S. and European powers, the agreement between the authoritarian presidents of Croatia (Franjo Tudjman) and Serbia (Slobodan Milo\u0161evi\u0107) carved up the territory of the third president in the talks, Alija Izetbegovi\u0107 of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). His country was recognized as a unified state but divided 49 percent\/51 percent into two ethnoterritorial zones, a Republika Srpska for Bosnian Serbs and a Bosnian Federation for Bosnia\u2019s Muslims (Bosniaks) and Croats.<\/p>\n<p>For victims of ethnic cleansing and genocide, which had recently occurred in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/monkey-cage\/wp\/2015\/07\/11\/srebrenica-at-20-years-how-do-we-study-genocide\/\">Srebrenica<\/a>, the peace was bitter. Many felt it was a win for perpetrators and criminals. The International Criminal Tribunal on the former Yugoslavia would later charge Milo\u0161evi\u0107 with war crimes and find Tudjman posthumously guilty of joint criminal enterprise in Bosnia.<\/p>\n<p>But it was also a triumph of American diplomacy. Dayton gave Bosnia a chance as a state; it gave a younger generation the possibility of transcending the ethnopolitical divisions that had plunged it into war.<\/p>\n<p>Twenty years later, what does Bosnia\u2019s \u201cDayton generation\u201d\u00a0\u2014 those who were children or not yet born in 1995\u00a0\u2014 think about the agreement? How do their attitudes compare with the generations that grew up in Yugoslavia and lived through its collapse and the bloody war that followed?<\/p>\n<p>Ten years ago, funded by the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nsf.gov\/awardsearch\/showAward?AWD_ID=0433927\">National Science Foundation<\/a>, we organized a representative survey of 2,000 Bosnians, asking face to face how they felt about the Dayton Peace Accords and ethnic separation. Last month, 20 years on, we asked 3,000 people the same questions, again face to face.<\/p>\n<p>Although we did not resurvey the same people we had surveyed in 2005, the large numbers in these demographically representative surveys allow us to track evolving attitudes in post-war Bosnia. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.prismresearch.ba\/en-index.php?lang=en\">Prism Research<\/a>, a reputable Sarajevo-based research firm, conducted both surveys for us and the margins of error are less than 2.5 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What do Bosnians think of the Dayton accord?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In 2005, we asked folks to choose among four statements about Dayton. Two were simple positive\/negative reactions: \u201cDayton has been generally positive and should not be altered\u201d or \u201c\u2026 negative and should be abolished.\u201d Two expressed other viewpoints also found in Bosnia: \u201cDayton was necessary to end the war but now BiH needs a new constitution to prepare for the EU\u201d and Dayton was \u201can imposition of foreign powers.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"inline-content inline-photo inline-photo-normal horizontal-photo modal-1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"courtesy-of-the-resizer zoom-in\" src=\"https:\/\/img.washingtonpost.com\/wp-apps\/imrs.php?src=https:\/\/img.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/monkey-cage\/files\/2016\/01\/TOAL-figure-1.png&amp;w=1484\" alt=\"\" width=\"622\" height=\"370\" data-hi-res-src=\"https:\/\/img.washingtonpost.com\/wp-apps\/imrs.php?src=https:\/\/img.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/monkey-cage\/files\/2016\/01\/TOAL-figure-1.png&amp;w=1484\" data-low-res-src=\"https:\/\/img.washingtonpost.com\/wp-apps\/imrs.php?src=https:\/\/img.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/monkey-cage\/files\/2016\/01\/TOAL-figure-1.png&amp;w=480\" \/><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Not much changed in Bosnians\u2019 attitudes to the Dayton Peace Accords between 2005 and 2015. The unqualified endorsement rose from 19.7 to 24.1 percent, the \u201cnecessary but\u201d option rose from 47.5 to 50.5 percent, and the unqualified negative view was cut in half, from 10.8 to 4.8 percent. Those who thought of Dayton as an external imposition remained essentially unchanged.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Which ethnicity most highly approves of the Dayton accord?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Attitudes by ethnicity essentially stayed the same over the decade as well. As we explained in an analysis of our 2005 results, it was \u201cindeed ironic that the greatest opponents to the implementation of the Dayton Peace Accords from 1996 onwards, the Bosnian Serbs, are now the community that view the agreement the most positively.\u201d They did so because \u201cDayton legitimated Republika Srpska as an ethnoterritorial entity.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>By 2015, this attitude had deepened among Bosnian Serbs (as a previous post here explained). Fewer now echo the view of Radovan Karad\u017ei\u0107, the Serbs\u2019 wartime leader, that Dayton was an unwelcome imposed peace.<\/p>\n<p>Bosnian Croats have shifted their attitudes significantly, from 43 to 57 percent for \u201cnecessary but\u201d \u2014 and now hold that the Dayton framework needs to be updated. As a minority in the Bosniak-Croat federation, Croats feel aggrieved by their weakened political position and want a more favorable structure.<\/p>\n<p>As the majority population now in the country \u2014 about 52 percent of the total \u2014 Bosniaks also want a restructuring of Dayton to institutions and political authority that reflects current demographics.<\/p>\n<p>In the graphic below, we see that BiH remains ethnically divided in its attitudes over Dayton. Differences by gender, age, education and income levels within each group are not important since ethnic attachment overrides other factors.<\/p>\n<p>Designed more to end war than to build a European state, the governance structures negotiated in Dayton are still in place. Only a minority of Bosnians approve of them \u2014 but right now there\u2019s no good alternative that appeals to every Bosnian ethnicity.<\/p>\n<p>The country remains poor overall, ranking 101st of 185 countries in GDP per capita, according to the World Bank\u2019s 2014 figures. Ethnic differences are also evident. Bosniaks report the highest unemployment rate at 32 percent, while Serbs and Croats are at 27 and 25 percent, respectively. Serbs report significantly lower household incomes than the other groups at an average of $413 a month (converted at current exchange rates); Croat households earn $513 and Bosniaks $447.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.recom.link\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/imrs.php_.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-137422\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-137422\" src=\"http:\/\/www.recom.link\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/imrs.php_-300x178.png\" alt=\"imrs.php\" width=\"474\" height=\"281\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.recom.link\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/imrs.php_-300x178.png 300w, https:\/\/www.recom.link\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/imrs.php_-768x455.png 768w, https:\/\/www.recom.link\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/imrs.php_-1024x607.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.recom.link\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/imrs.php_.png 1484w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 474px) 100vw, 474px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Should Bosnia\u2019s ethnicities be separated into different territories?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In 2005, we asked Bosnians if they agreed or disagreed with the following statement: \u201cEthnic relations will improve in my locality when all nationalities are separated into territories that belong only to them.\u201d (In 2005, 50.5 percent of the sample said \u201cyes\u201d; at the time, we compared those results with attitudes in the North Caucasus of Russia, another former war zone, where less than 14 percent wanted ethnic separation.)<\/p>\n<p>Here we have seen some important shifts in opinion. Fewer and fewer Bosnians \u2014 in all ethnic communities \u2014 support exclusive ethnic territories. Over 43 percent of Bosniaks supported ethnic separation in 2005; today that\u2019s 33, a drop of 10 percentage points. Among Bosnian Croats, support has dropped from 58 percent to roughly 40, or 18 percentage points. The decline is strongest among Bosnian Serbs, with a drop from 57 percent to 33, or 24 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p>Less-educated individuals in all three communities still prefer separation.<\/p>\n<p>Has this drop come because of the attitudes of the \u201cDayton generations\u201d? Let\u2019s look at the graphic below, which shows various age groups\u2019 attitudes towards ethnoterritorialism.<\/p>\n<p>Our age categories have roughly equivalent respondent numbers in each. The youngest age group (18 to 35) in 2015 is the \u201cDayton generation,\u201d ranging from those not yet born in 1995 to those who were 15 years old when Dayton was signed. This cohort shows the biggest differences from the attitudes of the young adults in 2005.<\/p>\n<p>Far fewer young Bosnian Serbs of that age agree that ethnic separation is a good strategy than did 10 years ago, with a drop from 60 percent to 28, for a total of 32 percentage points. More Bosniaks in all three age groups disapprove of ethnic separation than did in 2005. However, as Bosnian Serbs and Croats get older, they grow more supportive of separating by ethnicity.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What does all this mean for Bosnian ethnic relations?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Overall, Bosnians are becoming less ethnoterritorial. Only 10 years ago, more than half the population believed that ethnic separation was the way to prevent conflict. And that drop isn\u2019t just because a new generation is growing up in a less ethnically violent world.<\/p>\n<article>Why then? Perhaps tolerance has increased as people have gotten used to dealing with other ethnic groups, especially those who have returned to the homes they were driven from during the war. After all, Bosnians have been traveling back and forth between the political entities without significant friction or dramas. Or perhaps ethnoterritorialism is already so widespread that, ironically enough, respondents feel it\u2019s less urgent to say they want it. After all, it\u2019s already the norm in most places.<\/article>\n<article><\/article>\n<article><\/article>\n<article>\n<div class=\"inline-content inline-photo inline-photo-normal modal-3 horizontal-photo\"><a name=\"9edb2fac7a\"><\/a> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"courtesy-of-the-resizer zoom-in\" src=\"https:\/\/img.washingtonpost.com\/wp-apps\/imrs.php?src=https:\/\/img.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/monkey-cage\/files\/2016\/01\/TOAL-FIG-3.png&amp;w=1484\" alt=\"\" width=\"675\" height=\"402\" data-hi-res-src=\"https:\/\/img.washingtonpost.com\/wp-apps\/imrs.php?src=https:\/\/img.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/monkey-cage\/files\/2016\/01\/TOAL-FIG-3.png&amp;w=1484\" data-low-res-src=\"https:\/\/img.washingtonpost.com\/wp-apps\/imrs.php?src=https:\/\/img.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/monkey-cage\/files\/2016\/01\/TOAL-FIG-3.png&amp;w=480\" \/><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>To answer our question: Bosnia\u2019s \u201cDayton generation\u201d is the cohort least likely to support ethnic separation.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s the most optimistic interpretation of this data: Attitudes in Bosnia are changing for the better\u00a0\u2014 but institutions remain stuck in Dayton\u2019s straitjacket, now two decades old.<\/p>\n<p>Yet here\u2019s the reality: Bosnia\u2019s youths <a href=\"http:\/\/library.fes.de\/pdf-files\/bueros\/sarajevo\/11505.pdf\">are very disengaged from politics<\/a>.\u00a0Seventy percent want to leave the country and only 15 percent think that they have any influence on governments.<\/p>\n<p>Bosnia will <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2016\/jan\/26\/bosnia-european-union-membership-application\">apply for European Union membership next month<\/a>. The prospect of E.U. membership, like the prospect of Bosnia again becoming a land of multiethnic tolerance, is far in the distance.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 90px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/toal.org\/\"><em>Gerard Toal<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0<\/em><em>(Gear\u00f3id \u00d3 Tuathail) is co-author of \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/global.oup.com\/academic\/product\/bosnia-remade-9780199730360?cc=us&amp;lang=en&amp;\">Bosnia Remade<\/a>\u201d (Oxford, 2011) and a professor at Virginia Tech\u2019s campus in Alexandria, Va.<\/em><em>\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.colorado.edu\/ibs\/intdev\/johno\/index.html\"><em>John O\u2019Loughlin<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0<\/em><em>is college professor of distinction and professor of geography at the University of Colorado at Boulder.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/article>\n<div class=\"clear\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"pb-sig-line hasnt-headshot has-0-headshots hasnt-bio is-not-column\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"pb-sig-line hasnt-headshot has-0-headshots hasnt-bio is-not-column\">(Published<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/monkey-cage\/wp\/2016\/02\/02\/20-years-after-dayton-heres-what-bosnians-think-about-being-divided-by-ethnicity\/?postshare=1301454496508910&amp;tid=ss_fb\" target=\"_blank\"> in Washington Post, <\/a><span class=\"pb-timestamp\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/monkey-cage\/wp\/2016\/02\/02\/20-years-after-dayton-heres-what-bosnians-think-about-being-divided-by-ethnicity\/?postshare=1301454496508910&amp;tid=ss_fb\" target=\"_blank\">February 2, 2016<\/a>)<br \/>\n<\/span><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By Gerard Toal and John O&#8217;Loughlin, Washington Post &nbsp; Last November and December, a series of events and conferences marked&#8230; ","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":137421,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[593],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-137429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tranziciona-pravda-bhsc"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>What Bosnians think about being divided by ethnicity? 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